A hunch says 'I think it goes up.' A rule says 'If this happens, I do that, and if that happens, I stop.' The second sentence can be false, which is the point. In this class the harbor is pretend. Paper coins are not a brokerage account. Nothing here is a tip, a signal, or an invitation to trade real money.
Write the rule before you look up a price. If you write it after you know the ending, you did not test a rule. You wrote a diary. Keep the sentence short enough to fit on a sticky note.
A pretend example. Pretend rule: 'If the pretend price closes lower three days in a row, I place a paper boat toward higher, and I remove it if it falls by 10 paper coins.' You can disagree with the rule. You cannot make it vaguer and call it smarter.